Somalia is facing a profound security and political crisis, stemming from the indefinite postponement of federal member state (FMS) elections. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of how electoral delays have exacerbated national insecurity, focusing on three interconnected developments that threaten national stability:
The delayed elections in Southwest State have reignited clan rivalries, intensified territorial disputes, and destabilised local governance—potentially as a tactic to suppress growing calls for immediate elections¹.
Al-Shabaab Expansion in Galmudug and Hirshabelle: The political uncertainty and administrative paralysis created by the electoral vacuum have been strategically
exploited by Al-Shabaab, allowing the group to make significant territorial gains and increase attacks in both Galmudug and Hirshabelle states².
The dismantling of Somalia’s consensus-based governance model—particularly through the dissolution of the National Consultative Council (NCC)—has undermined state legitimacy and increased the likelihood of armed conflict ³.
With fewer than 7 months remaining until the federal mandate expires in May 2026, Somalia faces its most severe governance crisis since 2009. The convergence of
electoral paralysis, administrative decay, and deepening insecurity threatens to erase two decades of progress in state-building.
This report documents evidence of intentional administrative obstruction of the electoral process, examines the security implications of these actions, and offers urgent recommendations to prevent further deterioration of the situation.
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